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Dave Tuley’s View From Vegas ATS report and contest wrap-up on NFL Week 9:
Titans beat Cowboys 28-14 on MNF. View From Vegas is the Titans did it as 5-point road underdogs & +190 on the money line (went Over the low total of 40); for the week, dogs end up 7-6 ATS with Unders dipping to 7-6.
Usually when sportsbooks report big losses as they did Sunday, it’s because there is a huge run of favorites and/or Overs, but faves/dogs are 6-6 ATS in Week 9 with Unders 7-5), showing that the public landed on right mix of faves (MIN, KC, CHI, etc.) and dogs (PIT, ATL, TEN).
NFL season-long stats as we’ve passed halfway point with Week 9: underdogs lead 70-60-2 ATS (53.8%) with 2 pick ’ems not counted, home teams 65-64-2 ATS with 3 London games not counted, home dogs 25-19 ATS (56.8%); Unders lead 68-65-1.
SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 5-0 in NFL Week 9 (usually a fair indicator of how the public does against the books) with MIN -4.5, PIT +3, KC -8, HOU +1 and TEN +6.5; this is 2nd straight 5-0 week for Top 5, 14-1 over last 3 weeks and 26-19 (57.8%) overall.
Personal Gourmet is the SuperContest leader after Week 9, going 4-1 (capped off with TEN +6.5 on MNF) to improve to 36-9 (80%); @Pigskin_Junkies went 3-2 and is alone in 2nd at 35-10.
In SuperContest Gold, there’s a three-way tie at 30.5 points with Hammer 3 (who went 5-0 in Week 9) and two co-leaders from last week, Champion Iceman 2 and JRich, who both went 4-1.
In the Ultimate Football Challenge at the Golden Nugget, @paulstonesports (a regular VSiN guest) went 5-2 to remain in 1st place at 45-15-3 (75%) with 2nd-place Monsterloc 1.5 points back.
In College Pick’Em at William Hill, Lorkin & Workin and an unnamed contestant are co-leaders at 44-19 (69.8%) with 1 week to go; the champion receives $64,500 and the Top 10 cash; there’s also a $25,000 bonus if champion hits at least 70% (49 winners out of 70 plays).
College basketball is back
College basketball officially tips off its 2018-19 season today with a huge schedule. No doubt you’ll be tempted to jump in right away for that huge TV doubleheader from Indianapolis featuring #10 Michigan State vs. #1 Kansas and #2 Kentucky vs. #4 Duke.
But here are some words of wisdom from Jeff Fogle. On these early season games, let the betting market be your guide.
Seen & Heard on VSiN
"If the Patriots always get it right, why is it that the Packers usually get it wrong?" Mitch Moss Radio asks, and Michael Lombardi offers a great explanation.
For your viewing pleasure, here is the complete third hour of Monday’s Follow The Money, featuring "Win Some / Lose Some," "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly."
From A Numbers Game: "How do I hedge this bet?" It’s a question that gets asked a lot. Gill Alexander and the South Point’s Tim Fitzgerald offer their answers.
Watch the second hour of Gill’s show here.
Sunday was a rough day for the books. Well, the South Point’s Jimmy Vaccaro gives his side of the story to Brent Musburger on My Guys in the Desert.
Our one political link on Election Day: Want to turn out the vote in the U.S.? Jimmy has a suggestion.
Early Odds podcast with Joe Ostrowski: The sportsbooks got hammered in Week 9 of the NFL, but that doesn’t mean it was a losing weekend at the Golden Nugget. A Week 10 preview, college football, Harper and Machado watch, Aaron Kessler is moving markets, and college basketball has arrived.
Finally . . .
From the NY Post: In a scenario that bookies could only dream of, the average U.S. adult would lose $43.50 a year betting on sports by 2025, Morgan Stanley says.
Note to loyal readers. I’m in NYC for a few days and tied up with meetings. Any help sending me links or items for the newsletter would be welcome.