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Dave Tuley’s ATS report for NFL Week 12 . . .
Texans beat Titans 34-17 on MNF for 8th straight win: View From Vegas is the Texans also cover as 3.5-point home favorites (went Over 42.5); faves went 8-6 ATS (CLE-CIN closed pick ’em & not counted) in Week 12 thanks to 3-0 Thanksgiving & covering SNF & MNF, Unders went 8-7.
NFL season-long betting stats through Week 12: Underdogs lead 90-76-7 ATS (55.3%) with 3 pick’ems not counted. Home teams lead 85-81-7 ATS with 3 London games not counted. Home dogs 31-23-1 ATS (57.4%); in totals wagering, Unders lead Overs 88-87-1.
SuperContest leader @Pigskin_Junkies went 4-1 with wins on BUF, CLE, NE & SEA and a loss on SF; with 5 weeks & 25 picks to go, he’s 45-15 (75%) & has a 2.5-point lead over former leader Personal Gourmet, C Squared & Team Cleveland 1; FYI: 1st place is worth $1,422,214.20.
In SuperContest Gold (winner-take-all $640,000 prize), Hammer 3 is in 1st place with 40.5 points (40-19-1, 67.8%), one point ahead of Worcester Prep & former leader JRich with 39.5 points; PartyWithTheNoodler2 & Rosario 1 are another point back in fourth at 38.5 points.
The official standings will be out today at 3 p.m. ET, announced on The Edge and posted on VSiN.com/supercontest.
Jeff Fogle on college football . . .
Early numbers have begun to settle in the coming college football conference championship games. Alabama will be laying close to two touchdowns to Georgia in Atlanta in the SEC title tilt. Ohio State will be near that same spread vs. Northwestern in the Big Ten after a 62-39 upset of Michigan (winning yardage 567-401 on 8.5 to 5.1 yards-per-play after imposing its preferred pace). Oklahoma will be about a TD favorite over Texas in the Big 12 after surviving West Virginia 59-56 (losing total yardage 704-668 but winning yards-per-play 10.3 to 7.8 and scoring two defensive touchdowns).
Sharps typically bide their time in these types of games, knowing that squares (the public) love betting favorites. Key numbers (+7, +14 and +14) might be appealing enough to back underdogs such as Texas, Georgia and Northwestern whenever those key numbers are available. (Sharps may be hoping to get as much as +8 with Texas.)
You can find the odds across 11 books in Las Vegas here.
Jeff on college basketball . . .
Though the ACC-Big Ten Challenge began Monday with a pair of minor attractions, the matchups that fans and bettors are MOST looking forward to are tonight and Wednesday when potential Elite Eight threats (or better) are all over the card.
Tuesday: Michigan State at Louisville (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET) and Indiana at Duke (ESPN, 9:30 p.m. ET)
Wednesday: Syracuse at Ohio State (ESPN2, 7:15 p.m. ET) and North Carolina at Michigan (ESPN, 9 p.m. ET)
Last season, the ACC went 11-3 in this annual “made for TV” event, building on a 9-5 record the season before. That’s 20-8 the past two years.
Gamblers care more about records against the spread than straight up. Betting markets underestimated the strength of the Atlantic Coast sides last season, with the ACC posting a 9-4-1 mark vs. the number.
Will either conference be underrated this time around? That’s your job as handicappers and bettors to determine. Luckily, analysts have a few games in the recent database to evaluate. Let’s recap how those eight marquee teams have performed so far vs. the most relevant competition…throwing out cupcake parties to focus on quality vs. quality.
- Michigan State just won a high-profile tournament in Las Vegas, beating UCLA 87-67 and Texas 78-68 as 7-point favorites in each. Louisville got swept in a recent tournament in Brooklyn, losing to Tennessee 92-81 as a 7.5-point underdog, then covering +3.5 in a 77-74 overtime loss to Marquette.
- Indiana (-5.5) mauled Marquette 96-73 in Bloomington, but lost at Arkansas 73-72 as a 2.5 point road favorite. Duke got a lot of media coverage last week at the Maui tournament. In its three games there: Duke (-15.5) beat San Diego State 90-64, Duke (-11) only beat Auburn 78-72, Duke (-7.5) lost to Gonzaga 89-87 in a down-to-the wire thriller. (This after squashing Kentucky to tip off the season.)
- Syracuse (-7.5) lost to Connecticut 83-76, and then lost to Oregon 80-65 as a 1.5-point favorite at a recent tournament at Madison Square Garden. Ohio State has two impressive road wins already this season, winning at Cincinnati 64-56 as a 5-point underdog, and at Creighton 69-70 laying 2.5 points.
- North Carolina was in that Las Vegas tournament with Michigan State. Against the same opponents, NC (-9) lost to Texas 92-89 before beating UCLA 94-78 as -10.5 favorites. Those point spreads suggest NC would be a slight neutral court favorite over Michigan State, though Sparty took home the Vegas trophy. Michigan (+6.5) won at Villanova 73-46 earlier this season in a game you may have watched on TV. Then, last week at a tournament at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut, Michigan (-19.5) beat George Washington 84-61 before defeating Providence 66-47 as 8-point favorites.
From those indicator games . . . Michigan State looks more big-game ready than Louisville, Duke may have trouble overcoming jet lag to cover as huge favorites in Durham vs. Indiana, Ohio State has a chance to keep Syracuse reeling, and Michigan’s mission continues with a chance to get revenge on NC for an 86-71 loss in this event last season in Chapel Hill.
Seen & Heard on VSiN
Early Odds podcast with Joe Ostrowski: The Golden Nugget’s Aaron Kessler has spotted the most value that he has seen on an NFL game all year! Joe Ostrowski and Kessler take a look at the entire Week 13 slate, all of the the College Football Playoff possibilities, whether turnovers are luck or skill, and another college basketball future. Listen here.
"The backdoor TD by USC … ultimately saved the four day weekend." South Point’s Tim Fitzgerald says USC-Notre Dame may have been the heaviest bet Saturday college game of the year.
Also from Follow The Money: Former NFL executive and current VSiN co-host Michael Lombardi addresses a pair of QBs currently handcuffing their teams — Blake Bortles and Matt Stafford.
Gill Alexander and Vinny Magliulo recap the Packers-Vikings game on A Numbers Game and discuss why coaches seem to have so much trouble with clock management, even teams that wind up winning.
Conference championships are upon us as Gill and Vinny look ahead to this weekend’s matchups.
Gill guesses the NFL Week 13 lines with Vinny.
The New Orleans Saints continue to dominate while the Cowboys have clawed their way into the forefront of the NFC East. The SuperBook’s Ed Salmons looks ahead to Thursday’s matchup with Sam Panayotovich and Matt Youmans on The Edge.
Sports betting history in the making . . .
On Monday, Rhode Island became the first state in New England to take sports bets.
MLB says it will have a sports betting related announcement today.