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Dave Tuley’s ATS report . . .
Cowboys beat Saints 13-10 to kick off NFL Week 13. View From Vegas is they did it after closing as 7.5-point home underdogs & an average of +285 on the money line (stayed Under the betting total of 51.5).
Full betting recap here.
Raptors beats Warriors 131-128: View From Vegas is the Warriors (who have been burning money so far this season as chalk) actually covered as 9.5-point road underdogs (went Over betting total of 233).
Full betting recap here.
College football preview . . .
Jeff Fogle outlines the major conference matchups, focusing on offensive and defensive rankings (yards-per-game according to cfbstats.com), strength of schedule (according to ratings compiled by Jeff Sagarin of USA Today), and sharp betting tendencies.
Note that the squad with the superior offense is favored in all five matchups. Because recreational bettors love betting on offense, that could drive late-week point spreads even higher by kickoff. We’ll take the matchups in “betting rotation” order as they appear on the board at sports books.
Pac 12 (Friday in Santa Clara) link to betting preview: Washington (#51 offense, #13 defense, #38 schedule), has slight full season ranking edges over Utah (#61 offense, #15 defense, #33 schedule). Sharps pounded Washington at early lines of -3 and -4 because Utah will have trouble driving the ball without quarterback Tyler Huntley (out with a collarbone injury) and Zach Moss (knee). The smart money knows Washington’s stellar defense shut down Utah 21-7 in Salt Lake City when those two were healthy.
Big 12 (Saturday in Arlington, Texas): Oklahoma is the most extreme team in the country. Unstoppable offense, hideous defense (#1 offense, #111 defense, #37 schedule). Texas has shown balanced mediocrity against a tougher schedule (#60 offense, #63 defense, #20 schedule). Most sports books opened just above a touchdown. It’s notable that sharps DIDN’T drive the line toward the key number of seven initially. That suggests a closer around OU -8.
SEC (Saturday in Atlanta): Alabama has been a statistical juggernaut despite resting its starters for so many quarters (#4 offense, #6 defense, #55 schedule). Can’t forget that Georgia would be seen in a similar light if not for one no-show on the road against LSU (#13 offense, #12 defense, #28 schedule). An opener of Alabama -13 has largely stood pat. Any stores testing -13.5 see sharp money on the dog immediately. Sharps respect Georgia’s talent, and recognize its greater sense of urgency.
ACC (Saturday in Charlotte, N.C.): Clemson (#3 offense, #7 defense, #48 schedule) has to avoid complacency as a huge favorite over outmanned Pittsburgh (#80 offense, #69 defense, #19 schedule). Early money has been heavily on the favorite, with an opener near -24 now approach -28. Sharps have been enthusiastic about Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence since he was given the reigns.
Big Ten (Saturday in Indianapolis): Ohio State has mirrored Oklahoma in extremes, but with a slightly less embarrassing defense (#2 offense, #67 defense, #43 schedule). Will it lose intensity (again) after upsetting Michigan? Northwestern may have trouble playing ball control with such a poor offense (#111 offense, #48 defense, #43 schedule). Sharps drove an opener just below two touchdowns up to the key number of -14. Looks like it will take public money to drive it any higher.
Seen & Heard on VSiN
As they do every Thursday, Bill Krackomberger and Warren Sharp join Gill on A Numbers Game to dive into the NFL slate.
On Follow the Money, Chris "The Bear" Fallica has a very strong opinion on the Big Ten Championship game between Northwestern and Ohio State.
"If UCF was able to put 45 up on Pitt, I certainly think #Clemson will be able to." Fallica talks about his favorite game of the weekend.
Fantasy football expert Paul Charchian shares the toughest and easiest matchups for passers and RBs as the fantasy season races into the playoffs.
Pro bettor Paul Stone plans to “stay on the under train” in the Mountain West Championship game, when Fresno and Boise meet for the 4th time in 372 days. Listen to the segment with Mitch and Pauly.
What do The Edge co-hosts Matt Youmans and Sam Panayotovich think of betting college hoops in November? Here is your answer.
Ron Flatter on horse racing
The Ron Flatter Racing Pod: Guests include Rampart sports book manager Duane Colucci on wintertime race betting in Las Vegas and David Grening on the Cigar Mile card.