Underdogs Go 8-6 Sunday / Handicapping MNF / CFB Final Four Set

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Dave Tuley’s ATS report on NFL Week 13

The Chargers rally to beat Steelers 33-30 on Michael Badgley’s FG on an untimed down after 2 Pittsburgh offsides penalties: View From Vegas is they did it as 3-point road underdogs & +155 on the money line (went Over betting total of 54 points).

Underdogs went 8-6 ATS Sunday with 6 upsets (JAX, TB, BAL, NYG, AZ & LAC) plus OAK & NYJ covering in losses, Unders 9-5; including DAL’s dog/Under result on Thursday night, dogs 9-6 ATS in Week 13, home dogs 5-2 ATS, double-digit dogs 2-1 ATS, unders 10-4.

Tough day for Packers backers (unless they wanted Mike McCarthy fired): According to ESPN’s David Purdum, a patron at a William Hill US in New Jersey risked $8,000 on Green Bay to beat Arizona straight-up at -800 odds. Bet would’ve won a net $1,000. The Cardinals won 20-17.

SuperContest leader @Pigskin_Junkies went 4-1 to improve to 49-16 (75.4%) and is 2.5 points ahead of Team Cleveland 1 at 45-17-3 (46.5 points); in SuperContest Gold, Hammer 3 still leads at 42-22-1 (65.6%) but can be tied for 1st by Worcester Prep w/ PHI -6.5 on Monday Night Football.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected went 2-3 for 4th straight week with losses by top 3 choices (IND -4, PIT -3.5, ATL -1) and wins by NYG +5.5 & NE -5; Top 5 drops to 34-31 (52.3%); SuperContest Gold Top 5 went 1-4 w/ NYG the only win; Gold Top 5 drops to 35-25-5 (58.3%).

MNF: Redskins at Eagles (8:20 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Jeff Fogle has the breakdown . . .

The Philadelphia Eagles are on the fringes of the playoff picture. Their straight up record of 5-6 belies the reality that they’ve really only played one impressive game all season. That was a 34-13 win on the road against the New York Giants in mid-October.

Philadelphia is just 3-8 against the point spread. That blowout of the G-men…plus a season opening 18-12 yawner over disappointing Atlanta (with horrible stats)…and a 24-18 win in London over even-more disappointing Jacksonville are the only three covers of 2018.

The eight non-covers missed the spread by 9, 2.5, 6, 5.5, 9, 14.5, 34, and 2.5 points. Defensive injuries were a big factor in the worst results against Dallas and New Orleans. But, this team has been overrated even when healthy.

Very surprising for a team that “should” have been an offensive juggernaut. Last season’s team was already explosive (particularly in the playoffs). Then, offseason rules changes generally helped make good NFL offenses even better.

Let’s compare this year to last in a few stat categories. Those 2018 rankings were entering Week 13:

Philadelphia’s Offensive Fall
Yards-per-Game: #7 in 2017, #19 in ‘2018
Yards-per-Play: #10 in 2017, #21 in 2018
Rushing: #3 in 2017, #24 in 2018
Passing: #13 in 2017, #13 in 2018
Giveaways: #12 in 2017, #21 in 2018

The rushing game clearly jumps out as the culprit, as well as an increase in turnovers that would naturally follow a loss of dimensionality.

LeGarrette Blount led the Eagles in rushing last season with 766 yards. He plays for the Detroit Lions now. Quarterback Carson Wentz added 299 yards (and 26 first downs) on well-timed dashes. In 2018, Josh Adams is the current team leader with a paltry 291 yards entering the final month. Wentz is much less likely to scramble after last year’s knee injury. He’s only added 100 rushing yards in 2018.

Bettors (and Eagles fans) should realize that this probably isn’t “just” a Super Bowl hangover. Sure, it can be tough for a team to get up for a new season after celebrating a championship. But, the statistical fade probably reflects the following:

  • Opponents making defensive adjustments that plugged holes after studying film on young Wentz in this schematic through the offseason.
  • Wentz losing mobility and speed after knee surgery (he’s also been bothered by back issues this season).

This offense doesn’t scare anyone any more. The team as a whole becomes blowout fodder if the defense can’t keep opposing offenses in check.

Even though it’s December, this is only Washington’s first crack at Wentz. Have the 6-5 Redskins learned how to defend Philadelphia from the rest of the league? If so, the Eagles…coming off three straight non-covers…may still be overpriced. Note that early sharp money hit Washington at the key number of +7.

Week 14 lines . . . .

Openers posted by Jeff Sherman of the Westgate
Ten -5 vs Jax
KC -8.5 vs Bal
Hou -4.5 vs Ind
Car Pick at Cle
GB -6 vs Atl
NO -9.5 at TB
Buf -3.5 vs NYJ
NE -8.5 at Mia
LAR -4 at Chi
Wsh -2.5 vs NYG
Den -6 at SF
LAC -14.5 vs Cin
Det -1.5 at Ari
Dal -4 vs Phi
Pit -11 at Oak
Sea -3 vs Min

College football names its Final Four . . .

From the Westgate SuperBook:

Dec. 29
Orange Bowl

Oklahoma (79.5) +400 Alabama -14 -550

Cotton Bowl
Notre Dame 55.5 +300 Clemson -11 -400

Odds To Win Champ Game: Alabama 4/9 Clemson 3/1 Oklahoma 10/1 Notre Dame 12/1

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NFL: Week 13 betting recaps and MNF preview

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