|$100 bonus offer from Xpressbet: Sign up for a new Xpressbet account with promo code BRENT100. Your $100 bonus will be deposited into your account within three days after you bet your first $100. The first 25 VSiNners who sign up with that code and place at least one bet will receive an Xpressbet hat (like the one Brent has been wearing). Go here to sign up.
Dave Tuley’s ATS wrapup of NFL Week 13
Eagles beat Redskins 28-13 on Monday Night Football to tighten up NFC East race: View From Vegas is they also covered as 5.5-point home favorites (stayed Under 45 points); underdogs still won Week 13 at 9-7 ATS, unders dominated at 11-5, home dogs 5-2 ATS, double-digit dogs 2-1 ATS.
(Look for Gill Alexander to have plenty to say on the topic of the Redskins losing a second QB to a broken leg.)
NFL season-long betting stats through Week 13: underdogs lead 99-83-7 ATS (54.4%) with 3 pick’ems not counted, home teams now lead 95-87-7 ATS with 3 London games not counted, home dogs 36-25-1 ATS (59%); in totals wagering, Unders lead Overs 99-92-1.
Since you asked from standpoint of double-digit faves: They’re 11-8 ATS (57.9%) on season; started 1-4 with 3 outright upsets (TB over NO in Week 1, TEN over JAX in Week 2 & BUF over MIN in Week 3) but 6-6 ATS by Week 10; 4-0 ATS in Week 12, 1-2 in Week 13
SuperContest leader @Pigskin_Junkies went 4-1 in Week 13 to improve to 49-16 (75.4%) and is 2.5 points ahead of Team Cleveland 1 at 45-17-3 (46.5 points); in SuperContest Gold, Worcester Prep moves into tie for 1st w/ Hammer 3 at 42.5 points thanks to PHI -6.5.
In the Ultimate Football Challenge at the Golden Nugget, Monsterloc leads at 62-28-1 (68.9%); Scottie P (alias of handicapper Scott Pritchard) & Schematic Advantage are 1 point behind at 61.5 points; former leader @paulstonesports is 1.5 points off the lead (UFC pays Top 20).
Adam Hill of the Las Vegas Review-Journal writes about the new Golden Knights’ trend — instead of the Vegas Flu, we have the Vegas Hangover.
David Purdum of ESPN recaps a tough weekend for bettors.
Jeff Fogle’s college basketball preview
Notre Dame won’t face Oklahoma in the college football playoff unless both score semifinal upsets as huge underdogs. But their basketball teams will open the Jimmy V Classic tonight at Madison Square Garden (ESPN, 7 p.m. ET). That will be followed by West Virginia vs. Florida (ESPN, 9:30 p.m. ET).
There should be a tournament feel to this marquee doubleheader. Respected computer rankings produced by Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com) and Jeff Sagarin of USA Today (both popular with sharps) are in agreement that Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Florida are currently tournament caliber, while Notre Dame is bubble-caliber (after a disappointing second-round flame out as a #1 seed in the NIT last season).
Here’s a quick recap of season-to-date notable results for this twine quartet…
- Notre Dame (6-1 straight up, 3-4 ATS): beat DePaul of the Big East 95-70 as a -5.5 point favorite, but only beat Illinois 76-74 as a 6-point favorite in the ACC-Big 10 Challenge. Nothing but home games so far for the Fighting Irish. The straight-up loss was a 63-60 shocker to Radford as 12-point favorites. (Keep an eye on Radford in March! The Highlanders also defeated Texas in Austin).
- Oklahoma (6-1 straight up, 5-1 ATS): went 2-1 straight up and ATS at a three-day tournament in the Bahamas…beating Florida 65-60 as a 4-point underdog, losing to Wisconsin 78-58 as a 5.5 point underdog, then beating Dayton 65-54 as a 4-point favorite for third place.
- West Virginia (5-2 straight up, 2-5 ATS): was stunned at home in its season opener 99-94 by Buffalo as 11-point favorites, then was upset by Western Kentucky 63-57 in the middle matchup of the three-game Myrtle Beach Invitational. 63-57 as -7.5 point favorites. The Mountaineers did bounce back with two covers vs. minor opponents Rider and Youngstown State in their last two outings.
- Florida (4-3 straight up, 3-4 ATS): lost its season opener badly at Florida State 81-60 as a 5-point underdog, then went 1-2 in the aforementioned Bahamas tournament…losing games it wasn’t supposed to lose to Oklahoma and Butler, but routing Stanford.
In market terms: Oklahoma has been very underrated, Notre Dame and Florida slightly overrated, and West Virginia overrated but rebounding.
The key to handicapping these games will likely involve anticipating who will control pace. Oklahoma is super-fast, Notre Dame slow and deliberate. West Virginia creates pace with a full-court press defense. Florida is one of the slowest teams in the country.
In conference action, it will typically be the home team that imposes its preferred pace on proceedings. In neutral-court tournament-style basketball, team characteristics most likely to take control pace are: quality (the superior team takes control), and experience (the smarter team takes control).
Bettors will be confronting “pace mismatches” on a daily basis through the season.
Seen & Heard on VSiN
On A Numbers Game, Vinny Magliulo fills in for Chris Andrews on Guessing Lines, a tribute to the legendary Stardust show, as Vinny and Gill review Week 13 results and give their thoughts on every game on the Week 14 slate, looking to isolate betting value.
South Point sportsbook supervisor Tim Fitzgerald acknowledges the need to clarify "Special Teams" TDs as Paul raises an easily overlooked detail on Follow The Money.
Caesars Palace sportsbook risk manager Jeff Davis discusses opening College Football Playoff lines, and how he expects the numbers to move.
Early Odds podcast: Another week and another point spread that The Golden Nugget’s Aaron Kessler doesn’t understand. Joe Ostrowski and Kessler take a deep dive into Week 14 and realize that there are plenty of appealing options. The fellas also discuss The College Football Playoff and the true top four teams in the country.