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Dave Tuley’s ATS report . . . .
Titans rout Jaguars 30-9 to kick off NFL Week 14 and keep their AFC wild-card hopes alive: View From Vegas is they also covered after closing as 5.5-point home favorites (went Over betting total of 37).
VSiN betting and statistical recap here.
NBA: Golden State at Milwaukee (ESPN, 9:35 p.m. ET)
Must-see super heroes will battle on TV tonight when “The Splash Brothers” and Golden State visit “The Greek Freak” and Milwaukee in a potential NBA Championship preview.
Golden State just got Steph Curry back in the lineup alongside Klay Thompson after a long injury hiatus. Though Draymond Green is still out, the Warriors are coming off road win/covers over Atlanta 128-111 and Cleveland 129-105…both as 11-point favorites.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee have been getting market respect in pricing all season, and are coming off a 115-92 rout of Detroit Wednesday night as a 7-point favorite.
Despite some soap opera storylines (which were expressed in a poor 3-8 ATS for the Warriors in the 11 games Curry missed), Golden State is still the prohibitive favorite to win the Western Conference. Here are current futures prices according to William Hill (with win percentage equivalents in parenthesis…
Odds to Win the West: Golden State -375 (79%), Houston 13/2 (13%), Oklahoma City 15/2 (12%), Lakers 10/1 (9%), Utah 15/1 (6%).
Those percentages add up to well over 100% because sports books build larger universes to create a house edge. Those five teams add up to 119%…and there are 15 teams in the West. Not out of line to call it a one-team race at the moment. Still plenty of time for a more serious postseason threat to develop from the teams listed just below. Houston might have upset the Warriors last season if Chris Paul didn’t break down near the finish line.
Milwaukee has wowed live and TV audiences all through the first third of the season 2018-19 season. But the market knows that playoff basketball is a different animal. Futures boards still believe Toronto and Boston are more likely to take a run at the Warriors. Only four teams to list in the East because it’s a four-team race in the minds of oddsmakers and sharps.
Odds to win the East: Toronto 5/4 (44%), Boston 9/5 (36%), Milwaukee 13/4 (24%), Philadelphia 13/4 (24%).
That’s 128% in win percentage equivalents already. Sorry Indiana (40/1) and Detroit (100/1), you haven’t impressed the people in the markets who matter most.
If you’re wondering about odds to win the championship, Golden State is -170 on the money line (63% in an inflated universe). Milwaukee is 12/1 (8%).
Is there a smart bet in tonight’s superstar showcase? Golden State is in a clear revenge spot, having lost at home to Milwaukee 134-111 back on November 8 as 5.5-point favorites. Warriors stars were particularly embarrassed, with Curry posting a plus/minus of minus 26 in 26 minutes, Kevin Durant minus 28 in 31 minutes, and Thompson minus 28 in 33 minutes.
At the very least, considering Golden State in first quarter and first half bets might make sense given the chips on those shoulders.
VSiN’s betting and statistical data here.
Seen & Heard on VSiN
Gill Alexander’s Football Free-For-All with Bill Krackomberger and Warren Sharp in its entirety.
Check out what Matt Youmans has to say about Gonzaga and why they are only going to be better once two key names return as he and Brady Kannon talk college hoops on The Edge.
Should you pump the brakes when betting on bowl games? Brady weighs in and explains why patience is key when playing bowl games for certain teams.
Per Fantasy Football expert Paul Charchian, over the last two weeks Bills rookie QB Josh Allen has more rushing yards than all but 4 RBs. Paul loves running QBs.
Professional bettor Paul Stone discusses his approach to handicapping and betting the final 4 in the college football playoffs.
Ron Flatter on horse racing
The Ron Flatter Racing Pod: A Kentucky Derby prep in California and a major race card across the Pacific are the focus of this week. Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella discusses his colt Extra Hope, one of the 2-year-olds racing Saturday in the Los Alamitos Futurity, a points prep for the Derby. TVG international racing specialist Candice Hare checks in from Asia to preview this weekend’s Hong Kong International Races.
Ron’s column: Trainer Bob Baffert has never lost the Los Alamitos Futurity. Improbable and Mucho Gusto will try to keep his record intact Saturday.
Finally . . .
Pre-order the VSiN Bowl Betting Guide for $9.99 — $10 off the cover price. Details, including a link to last year’s guide here.