|Baseball . . . baseball?
Sure, why not? Caesars was first to post 2019 baseball win totals.
Brent and his Guys in the Desert, Vinny and Amal, discuss those win totals.
College football . . .
Jeff Fogles take on the SECs postseason performance:
What had been a narrative of SEC market dominance in college football came to a crashing halt on New Year’s Day and in this past Monday night’s national championship game.
Sure, there were some great bowl highlights overall. Florida, Auburn, and Texas AM in particular obliterated market expectations and opponents in their victories.
Kentucky upset Penn State. But the top of the heap missed badly.
- Alabama (-5.5) was humiliated by Clemson 44-16. That missed the point spread by 33.5 points, in a shocker that saw Alabamas vaunted defense allow 482 yards on 7.7 yards-per-play. Oddsmakers had been pricing the Crimson Tide as one of the best…if not THE best…college football team ever. Alabama would fail to play to expectations in its last three games vs. Clemson, Oklahoma, and Georgia.
- Georgia (-13) virtually no-showed the Sugar Bowl in a 28-21 loss to Texas. The Bulldogs had to rally from 28-7 down just to miss the spread by 20 points. Somehow, smash-mouth specialists were outrushed 178-72 against a Big 12 defense that had shown a tendency to wear down.
- Mississippi State (-7) lost outright to Iowa 27-22. This group of Bulldogs were third best in the SEC in most respected computer and power ratings at the end of the season. It took two cheap touchdowns (drives of 6 and 33 yards) to hang around until the end of a mistake-filled disappointment.
The SEC had posted a cover rate near 60% vs. non-conference opponents through the regular season. It wasn’t able to break even in the postseason. LSU joined Auburn, Florida, Texas AM, and Kentucky in the win/cover column. Alabama would fail to cover twice. Georgia, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt once apiece. That’s a 5-7 ATS record to close out the campaign.
What does this mean for next season? After all, handicapping college football never stops.
Bettors should expect the SEC’s national edges in athleticism and speed to hold true out of the gate. Many league teams are on the rise. Others should enter the 2019 season with a chip on their shoulders.
But it’s important to avoid the temptation to assume that the SECs powers are auto-bets vs. powers from other conferences. Bullying mid-level (and worse) foes from around the nation in September doesn’t necessarily have predictive value for what happens against elite postseason opponents that don’t blink And you’re generally paying a premium to bet on SEC teams because of those high market expectations.
Seen & Heard on VSiN
Since he is heading off to New Jersey for a few days, Gill did an early version of his Football-Free-For-All with Bill Krackomberger.
Las Vegas lawyer George King joins Brent and his guys in the studio to tell how he won the SuperContest Gold contest, good for $640,000, along with another $147,608 for finishing sixth in the regular contest. Full segment here.
Video poker teacher Bob Dancer shares his Jeopardy bad beat story with Mitch and Pauly.
Preston Johnson, guest host on The Edge, has a theory about the Eagles-Saints game.
Gill is banking on the Colts and Chargers again this weekend.
Oddsmaker Jeff Sherman puts some long odds on Pauly’s dating prospects with a lucky, young woman from the Westgate SuperBook.