|Our special Super Bowl issue of Point Spread Weekly is out today. Predictions and favorite prop bets from all your favorite VSiN personalities. More than 20 pages of stats and analysis on the Big Game. It’s just $9.99. Buy here.
Super Bowl 53 . . .
Highly recommended reading: VSiN Jeff Fogle takes you, step-by-step, through an approach to betting the Big Game.
Many of you aren’t content to just bet the team side in Sunday’s Super Bowl matching the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams (CBS, 6:30 p.m. ET).
You’re thinking about the Over/Under. You’ve read several stories about unique and entertaining prop bets. Maybe you had some fun betting 6-point teasers during the regular season, and you want to try that with the side and total Sunday.
Yesterday’s discussion about the “key” number of 3 provides important context for making smart teaser decisions, and avoiding nonsensical ones.
You know about the 3. How do other digits on the number-line stack up? In order, the most important single digit numbers in football are: 3 (by a mile), 7 (well clear of the rest), 4, 6, 1, 2, 8, 5, 9, and 0 (zero is impossible in a playoff game because somebody has to win).
- If you’re seeing a line of Rams +2.5 for the game, that means you could use them in a teaser at +8.5. This 6-point move would give you the most important key number (3), as well as the second (7), third, (4) and fourth (6) most important numbers.
- From the other direction, moving a line of Patriots -2.5 to +3.5 isn’t nearly as valuable. Sure, you get a 3. But the 1’s and 2’s are relatively useless (you get those twice!), and the zero doesn’t even count in a playoff game. Sports books make you take a dead number if you tease that direction. Mathematically horrible! Sure, it doesn’t matter if the Patriots win anyway. And, you’ll feel like a genius if the Pats lose by three. But spending $20 for a gallon of milk isn’t justified just because the milk tastes good. If you think the Patriots are the side, there are better ways to play them than in teasers.
And there is this to consider: If you accept that the Patriots are the true slight favorite straight up, then “Patriots by 3” is more likely than “Rams by 3.” Using a 6-point move on the Rams up to +8.5 gains you the more likely trey. The 3 you’re getting by teasing the Patriots is the less likely version of the key number.
But, wait, there’s more. As we mentioned yesterday, many sharps and oddsmakers think the “right” line is closer to pick-em or Patriots -1. If THAT’S true, teasing the Rams to +8.5 is like buying seven to 8.5 points for the price of six. With the Pats, you’re only moving a virtual pick-em to +3.5.
If you’re looking to bet the Pats, avoid teasers, then focus on team, total, or team and player props. If you like the Rams at +2.5 anyway, then pairing them at +8.5 with a teased Over/Under may be offering more value than you had realized. The trick is getting the total right too, then hoping your team side plays to its potential. They’re not called “teasers” because they’re easy.
More on SB 53 . . .
Betting update from CG Technology (which operates books at The Venetian, The Palazzo, The Cosmopolitan, Palms):
- Spread – 70% of the bets and 79% of the money on New England
- Moneyline – 62% of the bets on LA but but 77% of the money on New England
- Total – 61% of the bets on over, 67% of the money on under
VSiN news you can use . . .
Get all-access subscription through 2020 Super Bowl for just $240 — a savings of 50 percent That includes automatic entry to VSiN’s Beat the Spread Challenge with first prize of $10,000 — pick every NCAA tournament game against the spread
To mark the third Super Bowl of VSiN’s existence, we’re getting ready for a busy weekend of special programming. Our special extended hours begin tonight as Mad Dog Radio’s Patrick Meagher hosts The Wrap from the South Point studio from 9-midnight ET.
If you are going to be in Las Vegas, don’t forget Betting & Beers with Brent on Friday at 5:30 p.m. at the South Point. Meet Brent and his Guys in the Desert. Have some Buds.
You will be able to bet legally on the Oscars . . .
. . . in New Jersey. State regulators have given the go-ahead to N.J. sports books to take action on the Academy Awards on Feb. 24.
This is a first in the U.S. as Nevada has never offered Oscars wagering.
We asked movie critic Richard Roeper, a regular guest with Mitch & Pauly on Follow The Money, to set odds in the big categories.
Dave Tuley’s ATS report . . .
NHL: favorites/underdogs split 1-1; Over/Unders 1-1; 1st period Over/Unders also 1-1 with Lightning/Penguins (both among #FollowtheMoney5 1st period Over teams) went Over while the Stars (the best 1st period Under team) staying Under
Bulls rout Heat 105-89: ViewFromVegas is they closed as 10.5-point road underdogs & +500 on money line; game not noteworthy except it was part of Gill’s #tankapalooza and Heat was steamed from -575 to -700 on ML (as high as -800 William Hill), but Bulls didn’t cooperate.
Top 25: six ranked teams (No. 10 Marquette, No. 12 Virginia Tech, No. 14 Villanova, No. 15 Louisville, No. 19 LSU, No. 20 Iowa St.) were in action and all won and covered.
Seen & Heard on VSiN
On A Numbers Game with Gill, ESPN’s Ben Fawkes discusses the history of the SuperContest, the future of sports betting contests in America, and how sports betting legalization will change media coverage in the future.
Point Spread Weekly golf writer Brady Kannon handicaps the Phoenix Open, often tied to Super Bowl props, for Gill.
Follow The Money unofficial oddsmaker Charlie M picks up his favorite creative props for the Super Bowl.
Despite new states entering the sports betting industry, Johnny Avello of DraftKings tells Matt and JVT on The Edge that Nevada will still account for half of the handle this Sunday.
Brent, Vinny and Amal share their opinions on the Super Bowl MVP prop bet.