An Approach To Betting Super Bowl 53 / Wagering on Oscars Approved in New Jersey

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Our special Super Bowl issue of Point Spread Weekly is out today. Predictions and favorite prop bets from all your favorite VSiN personalities. More than 20 pages of stats and analysis on the Big Game. It’s just $9.99. Buy here.
Super Bowl 53 . . .

Highly recommended reading: VSiN Jeff Fogle takes you, step-by-step, through an approach to betting the Big Game.

Many of you aren’t content to just bet the team side in Sunday’s Super Bowl matching the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams (CBS, 6:30 p.m. ET).

You’re thinking about the Over/Under. You’ve read several stories about unique and entertaining prop bets. Maybe you had some fun betting 6-point teasers during the regular season, and you want to try that with the side and total Sunday.

Yesterday’s discussion about the “key” number of 3 provides important context for making smart teaser decisions, and avoiding nonsensical ones.

You know about the 3. How do other digits on the number-line stack up? In order, the most important single digit numbers in football are: 3 (by a mile), 7 (well clear of the rest), 4, 6, 1, 2, 8, 5, 9, and 0 (zero is impossible in a playoff game because somebody has to win).

  • If you’re seeing a line of Rams +2.5 for the game, that means you could use them in a teaser at +8.5. This 6-point move would give you the most important key number (3), as well as the second (7), third, (4) and fourth (6) most important numbers.
  • From the other direction, moving a line of Patriots -2.5 to +3.5 isn’t nearly as valuable. Sure, you get a 3. But the 1’s and 2’s are relatively useless (you get those twice!), and the zero doesn’t even count in a playoff game. Sports books make you take a dead number if you tease that direction. Mathematically horrible! Sure, it doesn’t matter if the Patriots win anyway. And, you’ll feel like a genius if the Pats lose by three. But spending $20 for a gallon of milk isn’t justified just because the milk tastes good. If you think the Patriots are the side, there are better ways to play them than in teasers.

And there is this to consider: If you accept that the Patriots are the true slight favorite straight up, then “Patriots by 3” is more likely than “Rams by 3.” Using a 6-point move on the Rams up to +8.5 gains you the more likely trey. The 3 you’re getting by teasing the Patriots is the less likely version of the key number.
But, wait, there’s more. As we mentioned yesterday, many sharps and oddsmakers think the “right” line is closer to pick-em or Patriots -1. If THAT’S true, teasing the Rams to +8.5 is like buying seven to 8.5 points for the price of six. With the Pats, you’re only moving a virtual pick-em to +3.5.

If you’re looking to bet the Pats, avoid teasers, then focus on team, total, or team and player props. If you like the Rams at +2.5 anyway, then pairing them at +8.5 with a teased Over/Under may be offering more value than you had realized. The trick is getting the total right too, then hoping your team side plays to its potential. They’re not called “teasers” because they’re easy.

More on SB 53 . . .

Betting update from CG Technology (which operates books at The Venetian, The Palazzo, The Cosmopolitan, Palms):

  • Spread – 70% of the bets and 79% of the money on New England
  • Moneyline – 62% of the bets on LA but but 77% of the money on New England
  • Total – 61% of the bets on over, 67% of the money on under

VSiN news you can use . . .

Get all-access subscription through 2020 Super Bowl for just $240 — a savings of 50 percent That includes automatic entry to VSiN’s Beat the Spread Challenge with first prize of $10,000 — pick every NCAA tournament game against the spread

To mark the third Super Bowl of VSiN’s existence, we’re getting ready for a busy weekend of special programming. Our special extended hours begin tonight as Mad Dog Radio’s Patrick Meagher hosts The Wrap from the South Point studio from 9-midnight ET.

If you are going to be in Las Vegas, don’t forget Betting & Beers with Brent on Friday at 5:30 p.m. at the South Point. Meet Brent and his Guys in the Desert. Have some Buds.

You will be able to bet legally on the Oscars . . .

. . . in New Jersey. State regulators have given the go-ahead to N.J. sports books to take action on the Academy Awards on Feb. 24.

This is a first in the U.S. as Nevada has never offered Oscars wagering.

We asked movie critic Richard Roeper, a regular guest with Mitch & Pauly on Follow The Money, to set odds in the big categories.

Dave Tuley’s ATS report . . .

NHL: favorites/underdogs split 1-1; Over/Unders 1-1; 1st period Over/Unders also 1-1 with Lightning/Penguins (both among #FollowtheMoney5 1st period Over teams) went Over while the Stars (the best 1st period Under team) staying Under

Bulls rout Heat 105-89: ViewFromVegas is they closed as 10.5-point road underdogs & +500 on money line; game not noteworthy except it was part of Gill’s #tankapalooza and Heat was steamed from -575 to -700 on ML (as high as -800 William Hill), but Bulls didn’t cooperate.

Top 25: six ranked teams (No. 10 Marquette, No. 12 Virginia Tech, No. 14 Villanova, No. 15 Louisville, No. 19 LSU, No. 20 Iowa St.) were in action and all won and covered.

Seen & Heard on VSiN

On A Numbers Game with Gill, ESPN’s Ben Fawkes discusses the history of the SuperContest, the future of sports betting contests in America, and how sports betting legalization will change media coverage in the future.

Point Spread Weekly golf writer Brady Kannon handicaps the Phoenix Open, often tied to Super Bowl props, for Gill.

Follow The Money unofficial oddsmaker Charlie M picks up his favorite creative props for the Super Bowl.

Despite new states entering the sports betting industry, Johnny Avello of DraftKings tells Matt and JVT on The Edge that Nevada will still account for half of the handle this Sunday.

Brent, Vinny and Amal share their opinions on the Super Bowl MVP prop bet.

Subscribers-Only Features

Special Super Bowl issue of Point Spread Weekly

By Steve Makinen
Point Spread Weekly

The entire VSiN team has a ton of coverage for you, focusing on the betting aspects of Super Bowl 53. What a game it figures to be, featuring the Patriots and Rams, the #2 seeds from each conference.

As usual, there are many storylines associated with the contest. It could easily be described as a battle between age and experience with head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady of New England vs. the youthful but savvy Rams counterparts of Sean McVay and Jared Goff. It also happens to be a rematch of the first Super Bowl win by the Patriots 17 years ago, a game that has been credited for launching what has become an AFC dynasty.

Of course, if you’re reading this, in all likelihood, you are here for the wagering, so let’s get to it. We have all of the usual features plus much more lined up in PSW #23. Matt Youmans and Dave Tuley provide their expert analysis, as always, and they are joined by Bruce Marshall, Jeff Fogle, and even our longtime designer Matt Devine, who bring their unique expertise to the publication. We also have a great feature lined up surveying 30 various experts and industry leaders on their opinions of the game and their favorite props.

My own feature piece concludes the four-part postseason series detailing top trends and historical systems for the Super Bowl. There is a number of different angles that you’ll want to consider before placing your final wagers. Most notably you might want to look at the trends focusing on outright winner, as well as recent underdog and NFC performance.

We are excited to have Brent Musburger back in this week’s issue, with some hints at how you might want to bet it if you are thinking like he is. Having been involved with so many big games in his legendary broadcasting career, how can you afford not to consider Brent’s opinion?

All that on the Super Bowl, plus coverage of the NBA, NHL, golf and MMA.

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VSiN Betting Resources

South Point daily sheets

VSiN has collected more than 80 pages of props from books across Las Vegas in one downloadable package here.

Compare lines across top sports books

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Today's Broadcast Schedule on VSiN.com and SiriusXM 204
7-10 a.m. ET/4-7 a.m. PT:
Follow the Money with Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard

10 a.m.-Noon ET/7-9 a.m. PT:
A Numbers Game with Gill Alexander

Noon-3 p.m. ET/9-noon PT:
Follow the Money (encore)

3-5 p.m. ET/Noon-2 p.m. PT:
The Edge with Matt Youmans and Sam Panayotovich

5-6 p.m. ET/2-3 p.m. PT:
Between the Sidelines with Matt Youmans and Sam Panayotovich

6-8 p.m. ET/3-5 p.m. PT:
My Guys in the Desert with Brent Musburger, Vinny Magliulo and Amal Shah

8-10 p.m. ET/5-7 p.m. PT:
My Guys in the Desert (encore)

8-9 p.m. ET/5-6 p.m. PT:
Between the Sidelines (encore)

9-Midnight ET/6-8 p.m. PT:
The Wrap with Patrick Meagher

We have special week of Super Bowl programming. On Super Bowl Sunday. turn down the sound on the game and turn up Matt Youmans, Matthew Holt and Michael Lombardi as they follow the twists and turns from a bettor’s perspective. Not a Maroon 5 fan? Perfect. Brent will preside at halftime with Gill, Mitch and Pauly, among others, aiming to improve your bankroll in the second half.

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