|Busy weekend here at VSiN. Here is what you should know:
- Our 24-7 video stream is free through Monday. We have special programming all weekend, including Sunday’s Championship Game BetCast, so check our broadcast schedule. Michael Lombardi, visiting us in Las Vegas, and Jonathan Von Tobel kick us off today at 10 a.m. ET with Betting Across America.
- The Super Bowl issue of Point Spread Weekly has predictions and best prop bets from VSiN’s personalities and experts, plus more than 20 pages of stats and analysis. It’s only $9.99, and you can buy it here.
Bettor X is back
Word on the Strip is that Bettor X is making big Super Bowl bets — and he likes the Rams on the money line.
Bettor X became Vegas legend by winning roughly $10 million on the Astros in the 2017 World Series and $6 million by backing the Eagles in the 2018 Super Bowl.
On Friday, William Hill took a $1.5M bet from an unnamed bettor to win $1.8M, but Todd Dewey of the Las Vegas Review-Journal confirmed late Friday that it was in fact Bettor X.
Not long after the William Hill wager, the South Point reported a $300,000 money line wager on the Rams to win $360,000, also believed to be the work of Bettor X.
As Gill Alexander first reported Thursday night, the MGM took a $2 million bet on the Super Bowl, but sports book director Jay Rood declined to reveal any other details.
Bettor X hasn’t revealed his identity, so why not take credit? Buy our shirt.
Heading into today, Patriots -2.5 is the line at all 11 Vegas books on the DonBest Sports screen. Money line is Patriots -140/Rams +120 at 7 of the 11, though South Point has "dime line" and has best Pats price at -130; best Rams price is +125 Treasure Island and Golden Nugget; Over/Under 56.5 at all books except 56 at Caesars.
Follow the lines across Vegas here.
Current SB ticket counts at MGM
- 66% of point spread tickets on Patriots
- 71% of Money Line tickets on Rams
- 57% of total tickets on Over
Other action of interest:
From Patrick Everson of Covers: One MGM bettor is in for $230K spread over the following:
- $62.5K on longest field goal Under 47.5, at -125
- $85K on second quarter Under 14.5, at +130
- $82.5K on score in last 3 minutes of fourth quarter, Yes at -165.
Here is a Super Bowl parlay at the MGM that already went south:
$100,000 two-teamer of Rockets -3 second half vs. Nuggets, tied to Patriots moneyline -135 vs. Rams. Bettor would have won $320K, but the Rockets lost the half outright (53-51).
Who does Brent have?
My Super Bowl betting strategy is simple: I’m picking the Patriots to win a tight game, but I’m going to try for a “middle” by using the Rams in a seven-point teaser.
The tricky part is I will also have to nail the over-under on a two-team ticket. So let me explain.
He explains in full here.
Jeff Fogle’s analysis of the Patriots . . .
If you’ve been a pro football fan for any length of time, you’ve grown accustomed to seeing the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. This is their ninth trip in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era.
It’s important for bettors to note, though, that New England is a dynasty because it keeps GETTING to the Super Bowl. Once IN the Super Bowl, the Patriots haven’t established meaningful scoreboard superiority over NFC opponents.
More from Jeff here.
Betting & Buds with Brent
Thanks to those who packed the Grandview Lounge at the South Point for our event on Friday night. You can watch it here (skip to 27:30 mark.)
(We’ll broadcast it later today on SiriusXM, VSiN.com and the VSiN app.)
Dave Tuley’s ATS report . . .
NBA favorites dominated, going 3-0-2 ATS against closing lines; Thunder, Jazz & Nuggets covered; Hornets and Celtics pushed after closing as 8- and 14-point faves, respectively, but earlier chalk bettors cashed at lower numbers; Overs went 3-2.
NHL favorites went 5-3 (only Lightning failed on puck line); Over/Unders 4-4; 1st period Overs 3-5 including 1-2 by #FollowtheMoney5 as the Penguins went Over but Lightning & Blackhawks both stayed Under (the Stars, the top Under team, did stay Under).
No. 24 Wisconsin beat No. 21 Maryland 69-61: It wasn’t an upset as Wisky was 5.5-point home favorite; in other Top 25 action, Iowa beat No. 5 Michigan 74-59 as 5.5-point home underdog and Bowling Green beat No. 18 Buffalo 92-88 as 8-point home dog.
Seen & Heard on VSiN . . .
Brent and the Guys check in with Jimmy Vaccaro from his new digs out east at Rivers Casino Pittsburgh.
Todd Dewey of the Las Vegas Review-Journal had a nice piece on Jimmy, who will still appear on VSiN programs.
Gill put together props segments with best bets from pro bettor Paul Weingarten and ESPN’s Chris Fallica.
As mentioned on ESPN SportsCenter last night by Neil Everett, VSIN Fan of the Year Randy McKay has everything you need to handicap the South Point’s "Beantown vs the Beach" prop this weekend.
American elections see a very large amount of action in overseas books, but will you ever be able to bet on them in the U.S.? Brent and the Guys discuss with DraftKings’ John Avello.
35 minutes of Super Bowl analysis from Fantasy Football guru Paul Charchian & former NFL executive Michael Lombardi on Follow The Money with Mitch & Pauly.
South Point Sportsbook Supervisor Tim Fitzgerald discusses insane Super Bowl prop ticket disparity. Think there may be some value on the other side?
Ron Flatter on horse racing . . .
Today’s three Kentucky Derby points preps – the Holy Bull, Withers and Robert B. Lewis – are previewed and handicapped on the Ron Flatter Racing Pod.
VSiN news you can use . . .
Get all-access subscription through 2020 Super Bowl for just $240 — a savings of 50 percent That includes automatic entry to VSiN’s Beat the Spread Challenge with first prize of $10,000