Well, At Least Louisville Covered / New League Shows How Betting Market Is Built From Scratch

Vegas Stats & Information Network
Dave Tuley’s ATS report . . .

No. 2 Duke beats No. 16 Louisville 71-69 after rallying from 23-point deficit: Cardinals covered as 7.5-point home underdogs, but their money-line backers of around +320 have to be sick (stayed Under 152.5).

Penn St. beat No. 6 Michigan 75-69: Nittany Lions closed as 7.5-point home underdogs & +320 on the money line and a high of +330 at MGM books, but many more bettors lost as Wolverines were backed by more than 80/20 margin (went Over 128.5).

Two Big Ten games between CBB Top 25 teams: No. 23 Maryland beat No. 12 Purdue 70-56 as 2.5-point home underdogs & +125 on money line (stayed Under 139); No. 11 Michigan St. beat No. 20 Wisconsin 67-59, covering as 2-point road faves (stayed Under 132).

No. 19 LSU beats No. 5 Kentucky 73-71 on tip-in at buzzer: Tigers did it as 9-point road underdogs & +340 on money line (stayed Under total of 148.5); No. 25 Buffalo beat Akron 76-70 but did NOT cover as 8-point road favorite (went just Over 145.5).

In other notable games, No. 10 Marquette beat DePaul 92-73, covering as 4-point road favorites (flew Over 149.5); No. 18 Kansas St. beat Texas 71-64, but the Wildcats were actually 3-point road underdogs & +135 on money line (went Over 122).

NBA underdogs went 5-0 ATS with outright upsets by Hawks (+6, +210 ML) over Lakers, Magic (+4.5, +165 ML) over Pelicans & Celtics (+7, +245) over 76ers; Grizzlies (+7) covered in loss vs. Spurs & Jazz (+9) covered in loss at Warriors; Unders 4-1.

NHL favorites 7-5 SU; Jets only winning fave to not cover puck line; Overs 7-5; 1st Period Overs also 7-5 with #FollowtheMoney5 (Blackhawks, Lightning, Devils) going 3-1.

The AAF, Take II . . . by Jeff Fogle

Sports bettors had a rare opportunity last weekend to witness the birth of a market. Oddsmakers and bettors were mostly flying blind into Week 1 action in the Alliance of American Football. The 4-point spreads…and four Over/Unders…ALL missed the mark by more than a touchdown. Six of the eight scoreboard results missed by double digits.

It wasn’t one of those situations where you marvel “how do the oddsmakers do it?” Nobody in the marketplace had enough information to know what the numbers “should” have been.

Many early assumptions were way off the mark. Based on media hype about rules designed to help offenses, some pundits (and bettors) expected high-scoring shootouts. Posted Over/Unders on opening day were at 54, the same range from NFL conference championship games matching New England-Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams-New Orleans. Production was so futile Saturday that the market dropped Sunday’s games down to the high 40s because it was clear offenses needed more time to get everyone on the same page.

  • Week 1 Average Over/Under: 51.1
  • Week 1 Average Scoreboard Sums: 38.3

Orlando posted the individual high-water mark of 40 points, but that was fueled by cheap scores off turnovers (a pick six and three TD drives of 41 yards or less).
Once skill position players have their timing down, and offensive lines better know their assignments, scoring could ultimately rise to what the market was expecting.

How many points should home-field advantage be worth in a new league? Hosts didn’t yet have any game experience in their home stadiums. Crowd size was going to be a question mark. Would home field be worth much of anything?

You probably know that home teams went 4-0 straight up and against the spread last week, earning a combined scoreboard victory of 119-34. That’s an average win of three touchdowns! Salt Lake was the only visitor to reach the end zone. Road teams threw 10 interceptions, compared to just two for hosts.

What will the Power Rating scale eventually look like? It was assumed this would be a competitive league. A group of third and fourth-team NFL players should reflect parity because there isn’t any “superstar” talent to tip the scales. But Arizona and Orlando look to be championship material because of sharpness and balance, while disorganized Atlanta and Memphis look lost. (San Diego head coach Mike Martz seemed like he was trying to get his own quarterbacks hospitalized with a passing attack that was 10 years out of date.)

Longtime bettors know you can’t judge teams and players by just one game. Maybe last week’s stars are this week’s turnover machines. Quarterback changes could fix what ailed the losers.

This week’s matchups: Salt Lake at Birmingham (TNT, Saturday 2 p.m. ET), Arizona at Memphis (NFL Network, Saturday 8 p.m. ET), Orlando at San Antonio (CBS Sports Network, Sunday 4 p.m. ET), and Atlanta at San Diego (NFL Network, Sunday 8 p.m. ET).

Sharps have learned from a nationally televised Week 1 eye test. Quants now have some numbers to play around with. As oddsmakers and smart money get smarter, lines should start capturing reality more accurately.

Seen & Heard in VSiN

Director of Trading at William Hill, Nick Bogdanovich, was blown away by the AAF in-play betting handle.

Westgate Superbook Manager Jeff Sherman discusses shameless stat chasing in the NBA. Jeff is posting regular season prop numbers he’s never seen before.

A lot of bettors like to build up futures portfolios for the NCAA Tournament, and The Edge co-host MatthewHolt has one long shot worth taking a look at.

Finally . . .

Shootin’ Hoops with Matt Youmans & Greg Peterson, Part II

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