Why You Shouldn’t Abandon Baseball Betting Just Yet

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Dave Tuley’s ATS report . . .
Saints rally to beat Texans 30-28 on Will Lutz’s 58-yard FG as time expires on NFL MNF after trailing 14-3 at halftime & 28-27 w/ 37 seconds left: ViewFromVegas is Texans held on to cover as 7-point road underdogs for backers (game went Over 52 despite slow start).

Raiders beat Broncos 24-16 on MNF nightcap to wrap up #NFL Week 1: ViewFromVegas is the Raiders did it after closing as 3-point home underdogs without Antonio Brown (after opening -2.5 back in April) & +135 on the money line (stayed Under closing betting total of 42.5).

NFL Week 1: HOU & OAK both covering improved underdogs to 9-6-1 ATS w/ push on IND-LAC closing line of LAC -6; 5 there were 5 outright upsets by GB, BUF, SF, TEN & OAK; road teams 10-5-1 ATS; Over/Unders split 1-1 tonight & Overs finish 10-6.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 ATS w/ No. 3 choice HOU (+7) covering on #MNF & No. 5 DEN (pick ’em) losing; on Sunday, No. 1 choice BAL (-6.5) routed MIA 59-10; IND (+6.5) covered as No. 2 choice in 30-24 OT loss at LAC while No. 4 TB (PK) lost vs. SF.

ICYMI: BAL (-6.5) was also No. 1 choice in Circa Sports Million; Top 5 Most-Selected teams finished Week 1 at 2-2-1 with other winner on KC (-3), the No. 3 choice
@CircaSports; losses were on No. 4 DET (-2.5) & No. 5 TB (pick ’em); push on No. 2 IND (+6 instead of +6.5).

MLB: favorites went 6-2 Monday with only upsets by Pirates +158 in 6-4 win at Giants w/ a 4-run top of the 9th inning & Braves +128 in 7-2 road win at Phillies; road teams also went 6-2 & road faves were a perfect 4-0; Overs 4-3-1 w/ push on ATL-PHI (-9).

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Josh Appelbaum’s market insights . . .
With last night’s Monday Night Football doubleheader in the books, the dust has now settled on NFL Week 1. For the next two days, bettors will be afforded a brief hiatus from football. We won’t have another game to sweat until Buccaneers-Panthers on Thursday night. College football is off until Friday.

While many casual bettors will spend this break catching their breath and preparing for the next round of football games, pros will multitask and turn their attention to the baseball diamond today and tomorrow.

In case you’ve abandoned baseball and want to get back in, we have about two weeks of regular season play left (roughly 17 games left for each team, to be exact). One of the easiest ways to profit from this final stretch is following line movement.

This time of year is unique because casual bettors have left baseball and moved to football. As a result, contrarian value plummets because there is no more public to bet against. At this point, it’s only sharps with an edge who are betting these games. For this reason, following big moves is profitable because these moves were caused solely by pros.

According to Bet Labs Sports, teams that see the line move at least 10-cents toward them in games 145 to 162 have gone 1,116-881 (56%) since 2005, winning +64.78 units. Think of the Yankees going from -150 to -165. At no other point in the season is following big line moves this profitable.

Baseball is the only game in town tonight and we have a loaded slate of 15-games to choose from. Let’s take a look at five games receiving big smart money from respected wiseguys.

7:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (93-52) at Baltimore Orioles (46-97)
Talk about David vs. Goliath. The Dodgers own the best record in the National League and 3rd-best record in baseball behind the Astros and Yankees. Los Angeles is a -140 to win the NL Pennant and +240 to win the World Series. Meanwhile, the Orioles are the 2nd-worst team in the bigs, just 3.5 games above the Tigers for last place overall. With Dodgers’ young ace Walker Buehler (12-3, 3.28) facing Ty Blach (1-2, 10.95 ERA), Los Angeles opened as massive -290 road favorites, the biggest line of the night. Sharps would love to go contrarian and back the Orioles due to their great value as a big home dog but they just can’t do it. Heavy pro and casual betting are in agreement on LA. This lopsided action has pushed the Dodgers up to -320 (Orioles +262 to +284). Road favorites of -250 or more have gone 70-20 (78%) with a 6.2% ROI since 2005. The total opened at 9.5 and is now being juiced up to over -120, with some books even rising to 10. This signals pro money leaning on a high scoring game.

7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (90-55) at Philadelphia Phillies (74-69)
The Braves took down the Phillies 7-2 in last night’s series opener, cashing as +127 dogs. Philadelphia needs a bounce back win to keep pace in the Wild Card hunt (Philly trails the 2nd spot by 2.5 games). However, it will likely be a tough hill to climb tonight based on the early movement. 25-year-old lefty ace Max Fried (16-4, 3.86 ERA) goes for Atlanta while lefty veteran Jason Vargas (6-7, 4.27 ERA) toes the rubber for the Phils. The Braves opened as -132 road favorites and have already been steamed up to -165 thanks to heavy early action from pro bettors. Philadelphia has moved from +122 to +152. Sharps also seem to be eyeing the over. It opened at 9.5 with heavy under juice and has since evened out to -110 both sides. The wind is blowing out to dead center at 8 MPH at Citizens Bank Park, which pros are hoping turn a few warning track fly ball outs into first row homers.

7:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (75-68) at Miami Marlins (51-92)
This game is being largely overlooked by public bettors. But not by sharps. Professional bettors don’t care how popular or unpopular a matchup is. It’s all about whether or not they identify an edge. Milwaukee took down Miami 8-3 in last night’s series opener, handing over 9 bettors a sweatless win. Tonight, wiseguys see a massive edge on the total thanks to Mother Nature. With Chase Anderson (6-4, 4.58 ERA) opposing Elieser Hernandez (3-5, 5.23 ERA), recreational bettors see two high-ERA pitchers and think automatic over. However, after opening at 9 we’ve seen smart money get down hard on the under, causing it to fall down to 8.5. The wind is expected to be blowing in from straightaway center at 15-17 MPH, remnants of Hurricane Dorian. The under has won 55% of the time (+103.65 units) when the wind is blowing in at 5 MPH or more since 2005. Just double check to make sure the roof remains open before first-pitch. In terms of the moneyline, Milwaukee opened as a -165 favorite and heavy chalk betting has already moved the Brewers up to -175 (Marlins +144 to +157). The Brew Crew need to keep winning as they trail the Cubs by 1.5 games for the 2nd NL Wild Card spot.

8:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (86-59) at Texas Rangers (72-73)
The Rays are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now. Tampa has won five in a row and 10 of their last 11. The Rays lead the 1st Wild Card spot by 1.5 games over Oakland but must continue to rack up wins as Cleveland is on their heels (2.5 games back). This game opened with the Rays listed as moderately short -125 road favorites and the Rangers a +115 dog. Early bets are taking Tampa, pushing the Rays up slightly to -128. On the hill, Ryan Yarbrough (11-3, 3.49 ERA) opposes Lance Lynn (14-10, 3.81 ERA). This is another sharp, weather related under for the pros. The wind is blowing in at 10-12 MPH at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The total has fallen from from 10 to 9.5 since opening. Some books are even down to 9.

8:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals (53-91) at Chicago White Sox (63-80)
This looks like a stay away game between two AL Central rivals with big losing records. But pros see great value they can’t pass up. The White Sox opened as -136 favorites and we’ve seen the line plummet down to -110. This is notable because only sharps are hammering this obscure gross game this early. No recreational bettors are rushing to get down on this matchup. So we know this movement was caused by pros with an edge loading up on the Royals (+126 to +102). Kansas City is 6-4 in their last ten while the White Sox are 3-7. Jakob Junis (9-12, 4.94 ERA) goes for KC while Ivan Nova (9-12, 4.69 ERA) goes for the Southsiders. The Royals are also a road divisional dog with a high total, a profitable spot historically. The total hasn’t moved off the opener of 9.5.

Subscribers-Only Features

Point Spread Weekly: Did you follow Tuley’s 10 commandments

By Steve Makinen

Dave Tuley gives us his special insight on betting the NFL, sharing his 10 commandments for betting the league. You’re going to want to print & re-read the piece often, as it should lead you to better discipline and bigger profits.

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