The 5 MLB Games That Sharps Have Targeted / How Bad Are The Dolphins?

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Point Spread Weekly for Week 2 of the NFL season is out . . .
VSiN’s digital magazine has 97 pages of stories and stats aimed to make you a better bettor. It is only $9.99. There’s even an option for a free trial. Go to VSiN.com/subscribe.

Want to know more? Scroll down to find out what’s inside this week’s issue.

Dave Tuley’s ATS report . . .
MLB: home teams went 10-5 Tuesday while favorites only 8-7 with biggest upset by DET+280 in 12-11 home win vs. NYY; home faves were 4-1 with HOU only loss as OAK beat them in a "football score," 21-7, as +145 road dogs; Unders 8-6-1 w/ push on LAD=BAL (10).

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Josh Appelbaum’s market insights . . .
When you’re deep in the daily grind of betting on sports, it’s easy to get consumed by the never-ending sweat of gambling and lose sight of the bigger picture.

Not today.

Today we honor the more than 3,000 Americans who tragically lost their lives in the September 11th terrorist attacks in 2001. They may be lost, but they are never forgotten.

Right after the Twin Towers were hit, then-MLB commissioner Bud Selig canceled all games for the rest of the week. Eventually, once baseball returned it played a huge role is bringing the country together, offering a much-needed distraction and helping us to cope in a time of crisis.

On the 18th Anniversary of 9/11, baseball is once again front and center. With roughly two weeks left of regular season play, here are the updated odds to win the World Series at Circa.

Astros +205
Dodgers +240
Yankees +700
Braves +1400
Twins +1600
Nats +1800
Cardinals +2200
Cubs +2400
Indians +2600
Rays +3200
Athletics +3400

What do you think? See any teams offering value? If you had a free $100 bet, who would you get down on?

Tonight we have a stacked slate of 15 games to choose from. Here are five games that sharps have already targeted.

7:05 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (90-56) at Philadelphia Phillies (75-69)
After dropping the first game of the series, Philadelphia bounced back with a huge 6-5 victory over Atlanta last night, cashing as a big +162 dog. The win keeps the Phillies in the hunt as they are only 2.5 games back of the Cubs for the 2nd Wild Card spot with 18-games to play. On paper, this looks like a big edge to the Braves tonight based on the pitching matchup (Dallas Keuchel 7-5, 3.47 ERA vs Zack Eflin 8-11, 4.31 ERA). The line opened with Atlanta listed a moderate -135 road favorite and Philly a +125 dog. Despite heavy early betting siding with Atlanta, the line has barely moved. This signals a sharp line freeze on the Phillies, who have great value as a contrarian divisional dog at home with a high total (10). Another reason to like the Phillies in another upset: Ted Barrett is the home plate ump. Homes teams have won at a 57% clip with +20.3 units won when Barrett calls balls and strikes since 2005 (data via Bet Labs Sports).

7:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (75-70) at New York Mets (74-70)
Both of these teams are fighting for their playoff lives. Arizona is 3-games back of the 2nd Wild Card with 17-games to play. Meanwhile, the Mets are 3.5-games back with 18-games to play. New York has taken the first two games of this four-game set, cashing 3-2 last night as -124 favorites. The DBacks desperately need a win and sharps like their chances tonight. Robbie Ray (12-7, 4.03 ERA) is set to face Steven Matz (9-8, 4.00 ERA). The line opened with the Mets listed as short -118 home favorites and the Snakes a +109 dog. Wiseguys with an edge got down hard on Arizona at plus money, causing the line to fall close to a pick’em (Mets -106, DBacks -102). The total opened at 8 and we’ve seen the juice rise on the under (-110 to -115), indicating sharps are eying another low-scoring game at Citi Field with two lefties on the mound.

7:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (76-68) at Miami Marlins (51-93)
The Brewers are getting hot at the perfect time. Milwaukee has won five straight and nine of their last twelve. They sit just 1.5-games back of the Cubs for the 2nd Wild Card spot. Unfortunately for Beer Maker fans, their playoff chances took a major hit last night when star outfielder and best player Christian Yelich broke his knee cap and will miss the remainder of the season. With Zach Davies (9-7, 3.69 ERA) facing Pablo Lopez (5-8, 4.75 ERA) the Brewers opened as -160 favorites and the Marlins a +147 dog. The combination of Yelich going down and sharps smelling a buy-low upset spot has caused the line to fall to Brewers -140, Marlins +129. The under cashed last night (under 8.5, final score 4-3 Brewers) and tonight pros are going the other way. The total opened at 8.5 and smart money has pushed it up to 9.

7:40 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (79-64) at Minnesota Twins (89-55)
Jose Berrios and the Twins blanked the Nats 5-0 last night, handing Minnesota -132 and Under 10.5 bettors a pair of sweatless wins. With Stephen Strasburg (16-6, 3.50 ERA) facing lefty Martin Perez (10-6, 4.75 ERA), Washington opened as -132 road favorites and the Minnesota a +122 dog. Pros and Joes are both backing the Nats in a bounce-back spot with their ace on the mound and we’ve seen the line move toward Washington -136. The really interesting bet here is the total. It opened at 10. Wind is howling in from left center at 10-13 MPH and Phil Cuzzi is behind the plate, one of the best under refs in the game (unders +34.06 units with Cuzzi calling balls and strikes since 2005).

8:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (81-63) at Colorado Rockies (61-84)
The Rockies sit in last place in the NL West and have absolutely no shot at the playoffs. But last night they were happy to play spoiler, upsetting the NL Central leading Cardinals 2-1 as +150 dogs. One paper, tonight’s pitching matchup is a massive edge to St. Louis as Dakota Hudson (15-6, 3.40 ERA) opposes Antonio Senzatela (8-10, 7.19 ERA). The Cardinals opened as -146 road favorites and the Rockies a +135 dog. Early action is all over St. Louis to bounce back and get back in the win column. This heavy, one-sided action moved oddsmakers to adjust the Cards up to -165. We discussed in last night’s newsletter how late big moves (10 cents or more in game 145 and beyond) have been a big moneymaker historically. So far, these teams are 5-2 since Sunday. The total opened sits at a high 13.5.

Jeff Fogle on the NFL . . .
How bad are the Dolphins? How good are the Patriots? Those two questions collide in Week 2, and Jeff is back with some early thoughts.

Subscribers-Only Features

Point Spread Weekly: What did we learn in Week 1

By Steve Makinen

Our cover story is dedicated to the NFL as we have TONS of reaction to the Week 1 results. Dave Tuley, Matt Youmans, Josh Appelbaum and myself help you with some strategies for taking those Week 1 results and turning them into Week 2 profits. Plus Bruce Marshall shares The Gold Sheet’s NFL trends for all 16 games.

We also cover the third full week of college football. Besides our usual picks, matchups, trends and stats, my feature article concludes our 3-part Stability Mismatch series with a look at the final six games in 2019 that qualify for this unique time-proven winning system.

I am thrilled to be heading out to Las Vegas myself this weekend for the NASCAR South Point 400 and will be spending the weekend at the fantastic South Point Hotel & Casino. If you happen to be in town, I surely will be hanging around the sportsbook & the VSiN studios. Stop by and say hi if you happen to catch me. I love meeting our loyal readers.

I have my weekly race simulation ready for the NASCAR playoffs’ first race. In addition, I have put together an article projecting the entire 10-event race to the title, offering up some predictions for the proceedings as well.

Point Spread Weekly will be out later today, at 10 a.m. Pacific.

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