What Early College Basketball Trends You Should Know About / How Bout Them Raiders?

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Be prepared for a busy weekend of betting

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Dave Tuley’s ATS report

  • Raiders beat Chargers 26-24 on TNF to kick off NFL Week 10. Raiders closed as 1.5-point home underdogs & +105 on ML (went Over betting total of 49 on go-ahead TD); home teams start this weekend with win/cover after going 11-2 SU & 12-1 ATS in Week 9.
  • Clippers rallied in 4th quarter to beat Blazers 107-101 as Kawhi Leonard played 2nd game of back-to-back. They ended up covering as 5.5-point home favorites; NBA faves 3-1 ATS Thursday as Heat (+1.5) only dog to cash at Suns; home/road & O/U both 2-2.

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Josh Appelbaum’s Market Insights

The Raiders rallied late to beat the Chargers 26-24 on Thursday Night Football, handing a big win to sportsbooks, contrarians and underdog bettors. Oakland opened as a 2-point favorite, but closed as a 1.5-point dog thanks to nearly two-thirds of bets backing Los Angeles. With the Raiders’ cover, dogs improve to 77-57 ATS (57.5%) on the season while divisional dogs improve to 23-16 ATS (59%). The total opened at 47.5, closed at 49 and landed on 50, gifting over bettors a sweaty victory.

On the college gridiron, Lafayette destroyed Coastal Carolina 48-7 and easily covered as 14-point favorites. Sun Belt road teams are now 306-216 ATS (58.6%) since 2005 according to Bet Labs Sports. In the nightcap, sharps were all over South Florida (+2 to -1), but Temple won and covered 17-7. The unders cashed in both games. Thursday Night college football unders are now 21-8 this season (72.4%) and 56.5% since 2005.

Now we turn our attention to Friday’s loaded slate where we have a pair of college football games, 44 college basketball games, 11 NBA games and 4 NHL games.

Two trends to keep an eye on for college hoops today

1. Neutral court unders (3-0 this year and 53.5% since 2005)
Matches
Oakland-Delaware Under 146.5
Davidon-Auburn Under 145.5
UTSA-Southern Illinois Under 149.5
Baylor-Washington Under 138.5
South Dakota-Pacific Under 138
Colorado-Arizona State Under 148

2. Ranked teams against unranked teams in season openers (6-4 ATS, 60% this season and 135-90 ATS, 60% since 2005).
Matches
Xavier -20.5 vs Siena
Memphis -19.5 vs Illinois Chicago
VCU -16.5 vs North Texas
LSU -13.5 vs Bowling Green
Baylor -5 vs Washington

For an updated betting breakdown of all of Friday’s action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at 3:30 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let’s discuss how the betting market is shaping up for the two college football games.

7 p.m. ET: Central Florida (7-2) at Tulsa (2-7)

This American Athletic Conference showdown looks like a complete mismatch on paper. Central Florida is 7-2 and riding a three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, after starting the season 2-2 Tulsa has dropped five straight. UCF averages a whopping 46.3 PPG on offense while Tulsa averages just 24.4 PPG. The Knights also boast the superior defense, giving up 22.4 PPG compared to the Golden Hurricanes’ 33 PPG. The one silver lining for Tulsa: despite their poor record they are 5-4 ATS, including two big covers and near upsets recently against SMU (lost 43-37 as 12-point dogs) and Memphis (lost 42-41 as 10-point dogs). UCF is only 4-5 ATS.

The Knights opened as a 16-point road favorites. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with UFC (three-out-of-four bets in their favor). Early sharp action also hit UCF at -16 and -16.5. This overload of public and pro money pushed the line up to 17 and even 17.5, at which point we saw some sharp buyback over the last 24-hours on Tulsa plus the points. The public is also pounding the over (two-thirds of bets), but we’ve seen smart money drop the line down from 71 to 69. The over is 5-3-1 in UCF games and the under is 5-4 in Tulsa games.

10:30 p.m. ET: Washington (5-4) at Oregon State (4-4)

The Pac-12 after dark features two teams trending in completely opposite directions. After starting the year 4-1 Washington has dropped three of their last four games, including two tough losses the last two weeks against Utah (33-28) and Oregon (35-31) both as 3-point dogs. On the other hand, Oregon State began the year 1-3 but has won three of their last four games. Last week the Beavers crushed Arizona 56-38, winning easily as 4.5-point dogs. The week before, Oregon State shocked Cal 21-17 as 10.5-point dogs. Both teams have similar scoring offenses (Huskies 34.9 PPG and Beavers 33.6 PPG). The difference comes on defense where Washington is allowing only 22.8 PPG compared to Oregon State’s 32.4. The Huskies are 5-4 ATS and the Beavers 6-2 ATS.

This line opened with Washington listed as a 10-point road favorite. Oddsmakers seem to have set the rare perfect line as bets are split right down the middle and the line hasn’t moved an inch. We’ll have to wait until later today when limits are raised to see which side receives late sharp money. The total has barely budged also. Some books ticked up an inch from 64.5 to 65. Washington is 6-3 to the over while Oregon State is 4-4. These two teams met almost exactly a year ago and the Huskies won 42-23.

The Trend Is Your Friend, sponsored by Xpressbet.

Here are some numbers to remember before betting football and the ponies.

An important trend points to LSU potentially covering Saturday at Alabama. Since 20-17—when the Crimson Tide faces a team that has won at least three in a row—it is only 2-8 against the spread.

On Sunday night—not only have the Vikings covered in six of their last seven games against the Cowboys—but Dallas is 0-7 against the spread at home coming off a Monday night game.

At the racetrack, "Fruitfully" is an even-money, morning-line favorite in the third race today at Golden Gate Fields. That’s where her trainer has saddled 16 winners this year at one mile on the main track. And 81 percent of his favorites have finished first or second.

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Ron Flatter on horse racing

From Santa Anita, ESPN’s Kenny Mayne and trainer Todd Pletcher are guests on the Ron Flatter Racing Pod. Kenny tells some racing stories and discusses his work with a charity helping wounded military veterans. Todd looks back on Vino Rosso’s victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There is also Twitter feedback, a commentary and news about the RFRP being a finalist for a Fan Choice Award. The Ron Flatter Racing Pod is available via Apple, Google, Spotify, Stitcher and at VSiN.com/podcasts, and it is sponsored by Xpressbet.

Ron’s column: So much for the stories that there would be no Kentucky Derby futures in Nevada. They are alive. Bettors will decide if they are indeed well. And a horse that was not in the Breeders’ Cup is the favorite to win in May.

Contest Corner

The Week 10 lines for the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest are out. So are the lines from Circa Sports Million.

Betting resources

Odds & Scores

Sheets from South Point and Circa Sports

Odds comparison

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