Looking at Updated Wild-Card Weekend Lines
The anticipation seems never-ending for the first-round of the playoffs in Super Wild-Card Weekend, which includes Monday Night Football for the first time.
Let’s check in on the lines from DraftKings and the line movement:
Raiders at Bengals (-5, 48.5) – The -5 is one of the lowest prices in the market on the Bengals. We’ve seen the spread come down gradually from -6, but we haven’t seen a ton to swing the balance of this lines as of yet. The total is 48.5 or 49, which, again, hasn’t moved much. Influential bettors seem to be waiting patiently and most public bettors won’t get involved until game day.
Patriots at Bills (-4, 44) – Absolutely no movement on side or total here. What do we make of that? First, the books are writing pretty even action with no reason to move. Second, the weather forecast is more promising than first expected, so it hasn’t altered the total or led to as many concerns about Josh Allen. I still think this line goes to 3.5, so if you like the Bills, I think you can wait.
Eagles at Bucs (-9.5 (+100), 46) – It is worth noting that 9.5 is one of the biggest prices in the market, but the juice is heavy on the plus side. This is what we call a "Teaser Protection Line". Bettors can’t simply tease Tampa Bay through 3 and 7 with a line of 9.5. Even a 6.5-point teaser won’t do it. DraftKings is protecting against those 6-point teasers by putting the line this high. Most books are 8.5. The total dropped on Wednesday for this game with heavy wind in the forecast and we’re even seeing more 45.5s out there than 46.5s.
49ers at Cowboys (-3.5, 50.5) – A move off of the key number of 3 is really interesting here. We’re seeing -3 and -115 or -120 at most books, which is an indicator that the Cowboys are garnering some support and it may even be sharper in nature. Books that are exposed on the Dallas side, as DraftKings might be, may bump to 3.5 to balance the counts a bit and also see if that is an obvious buy point on San Francisco. My guess is that it would be. The total of 50.5 or 51 is inching up slowly.
Steelers at Chiefs (-12.5, 46) – The total is slowly dropping for this game, as the Chiefs have not had the cleanest injury report heading into Sunday’s late game. The side pretty much hasn’t moved one way or the other. Note the value of 3 and 7 in teasers. The teaser complement with the Bucs would likely be Chiefs -6.5 for a lot of bettors. You don’t see DraftKings holding at 13 to bring that teaser down to 7. They’re a lot less worried about a 12.5 to 6.5 teaser leg.
Cardinals at Rams (-4, 49.5) – DraftKings has flirted with Cardinals +3.5 a couple of times, but now sits at 4 in unison with the rest of the market. The total of 49 is one of the lower ones on the board, as this total has ticked down a point. With this being the Monday standalone game, not only will it draw the most handle, but the vast majority of bets won’t come in until game day, so this line will have a lot of time to marinate and move.
NFL Top Stories
- VSiN Staff: Best bets from Adam Burke, Dave Tuley and Ben Brown of PFF for Saturday’s two Wild-Card Games. READ MORE
- Reid Fowler: Betting trends courtesy of DraftKings, plus links to the trends in our database for the six games this weekend. KEEP READING
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Josh Appelbaum & Dave Tuley
Josh Appelbaum:Josh’s Friday article focuses on the odds for the next head coach hired in the NFL, as there are eight openings to be filled. READ MORE
Also, listen to Josh’s latest Market Insights podcast. LISTEN HERE
Dave Tuley: "Tuley’s Takes" for Friay features a recap of what took place on Thursday and a best bet for the weekend.READ MORE
ICYMI, Dave also caught up with the top prize winner (Durbify) in the Circa Sports Million and the leader (Hannibal Barca) going into Week 18 to talk about their experiences. READ MORE
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